SHOP Covered Call Analysis: Proceed With Caution Weak ยท 35/100

Shopify Inc (Technology) ยท $110.79 ยท Analysis generated Apr 10, 2026 ยท Data as of market close Apr 10 ยท Market closed โ€” data may be from last trading day
This strategy is NOT recommended for SHOP right now
Score 35/100. The technical signals do not support selling covered calls on SHOP at this time. RSI at 38 โ€” oversold, not ideal for selling calls. IV -26% vs avg โ€” premiums below average, less income. MACD bearish โ€” stock may keep falling (risk). Check back when conditions improve, or consider a different strategy.

Quick Take

SHOP is trading at $110.79 with RSI at 38 (oversold territory). Options IV is at 58% โ€” 26% below its 30-day average of 79%. Neither RSI nor IV strongly favor selling calls right now. Consider waiting for better conditions or using a different strategy.

Technical Signals

RSI (14)
38
IV Today
57.8%
IV vs 30d Avg
-27%
MACD
bearish
ADX
17
MFI
42

The Setup

SHOP Covered Call

LONG STOCK
100 shares @ $110.79
SHORT CALL
$120 Jun '26 ยท $8.65/sh
Net Cost
$10,214
Max Profit
+$1,786
Break-even
$102.14
Projected P&L at Target
+$1,786 (17.5%)
P&L at Expiry Now $111 $78 $111 $144

P&L Scenarios

What happens at different SHOP prices by expiry:

SHOP Price Today May 5 May 27 Jun 19 (exp)
$89 (-20%) -$1,541 -$1,443 -$1,369 -$1,351
$94 (-15%) -$1,097 -$965 -$844 -$797
$100 (-10%) -$689 -$523 -$348 -$243
$105 (-5%) -$322 -$125 +$104 +$311
$109 (-2%) -$121 +$92 +$349 +$643
$111 (0%) โ† now +$5 +$226 +$501 +$865
$113 (+2%) +$124 +$354 +$642 +$1,087
$116 (+5%) +$291 +$529 +$833 +$1,419
$120 (+8%) โ† target +$458 +$703 +$1,017 +$1,786
$122 (+10%) +$537 +$784 +$1,099 +$1,786
$127 (+15%) +$748 +$994 +$1,304 +$1,786
$133 (+20%) +$925 +$1,164 +$1,453 +$1,786

Why This Strategy, Why Now

  • RSI at 38 โ€” oversold, not ideal for selling calls
  • IV -26% vs avg โ€” premiums below average, less income
  • MACD bearish โ€” stock may keep falling (risk)
  • ADX at 17 โ€” range-bound, perfect for selling calls
  • No squeeze โ€” no imminent breakout

Key Risks

The main risk is missing upside if SHOP rallies sharply. The premium received ($X per share) provides a buffer, but gains above the strike are forfeited.
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