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XOM Covered Call Analysis: Proceed With Caution Weak · 45/100
XOM · $152.51 ·
Analysis generated Apr 13, 2026 ·
Data as of market close Apr 13
This strategy is NOT recommended for XOM right now
Score 45/100. The technical signals do not support selling covered calls on XOM at this time.
IV -35% vs avg — premiums below average, less income. MACD bearish — stock may keep falling (risk).
Check back when conditions improve, or consider a different strategy.
Quick Take
XOM is trading at $152.51 with RSI at 48 (neutral territory). Options IV is at 30% — 35% below its 30-day average of 46%. Neither RSI nor IV strongly favor selling calls right now. Consider waiting for better conditions or using a different strategy.
Technical Signals
RSI (14)
48
IV Today
29.8%
IV vs 30d Avg
-35%
MACD
bearish
ADX
27
MFI
51
The Setup
XOM Covered Call
LONG STOCK
100 shares @ $152.51
SHORT CALL
$165 Jun '26 · $3.35/sh
Net Cost
$14,916
Max Profit
+$1,584
Break-even
$149.16
Projected P&L at Target
+$1,584
(10.6%)
P&L at Expiry
P&L Scenarios
What happens at different XOM prices by expiry:
| XOM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $122 (-20%) | -$2,723 | -$2,716 | -$2,715 | -$2,715 |
| $130 (-15%) | -$1,980 | -$1,960 | -$1,953 | -$1,953 |
| $137 (-10%) | -$1,269 | -$1,221 | -$1,193 | -$1,190 |
| $145 (-5%) | -$616 | -$526 | -$451 | -$428 |
| $149 (-2%) | -$261 | -$145 | -$29 | +$30 |
| $153 (0%) ← now | -$45 | +$89 | +$234 | +$335 |
| $156 (+2%) | +$155 | +$304 | +$476 | +$640 |
| $160 (+5%) | +$423 | +$589 | +$794 | +$1,098 |
| $165 (+8%) ← target | +$663 | +$838 | +$1,060 | +$1,584 |
| $168 (+10%) | +$780 | +$956 | +$1,178 | +$1,584 |
| $175 (+15%) | +$1,035 | +$1,201 | +$1,392 | +$1,584 |
| $183 (+20%) | +$1,206 | +$1,346 | +$1,489 | +$1,584 |
Why This Strategy, Why Now
- RSI at 48
- IV -35% vs avg — premiums below average, less income
- MACD bearish — stock may keep falling (risk)
- ADX at 27 — moderate trend
- No squeeze — no imminent breakout
Key Risks
ADX at 27 indicates a moderately strong trend. In trending markets, covered calls cap your upside too early. Use a higher strike to leave more room.