ACEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACEL - Accel Entertainment, Inc.
$11.04
0.04 (0.36%)
▲
5d:
-0.45%
30d:
-15.47%
90d:
-3.24%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ACEL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ACEL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.09
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.99
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACEL is currently trading at $11.04, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.77 to $11.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 109.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACEL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.65, while resistance sits at $11.45.
Market Sentiment: ACEL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+40.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACEL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.65, while resistance sits at $11.45.
Market Sentiment: ACEL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+40.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$10.77 -
$11.68
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.4% below Wall St target ($15.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.77 -
$11.68
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.66
Resistance Level
$11.45
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.92
Wall Street Target
$15.50
(+40.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
109.3%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 12.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.85
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$10.67
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$10.49
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$11.08
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 9.3%)
$24.88
(+125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 9.3%)
$14.42
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 9.3%)
$12.26
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.60
Bull Case
$18.54
(+65%)
Analyst growth 54.3%, PE expands to 20.0
Base Case
$16.85
(+50%)
Market implied 54.3%, PE stable at 18.2
Bear Case
$7.43
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 12.6
Stabilization Target:
$11.67
(+5.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Derek Harmer
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-13
Gordon Rubenstein
SELL
3766 shares
2026-03-12
Gordon Rubenstein
SELL
172943 shares
2026-03-12
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