ACEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACEL - Accel Entertainment, Inc.
$11.31
0.02 (0.18%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ACEL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ACEL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.93
Based on -0.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.79
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACEL is currently trading at $11.31, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.27 to $11.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACEL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.17 (+34.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACEL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.17 (+34.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$11.27 -
$11.60
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.3% below Wall St target ($15.17)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$11.27 -
$11.60
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.06
Resistance Level
$11.71
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.93
Wall Street Target
$15.17
(+34.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
167.3%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 12.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.37
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$11.45
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$11.53
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.33
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -4.5%)
$16.94
(+50%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: -4.5%)
$9.82
(-13%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: -4.5%)
$8.35
(-26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.50
Bull Case
$21.38
(+89%)
Analyst growth 74.7%, PE expands to 24.5
Base Case
$19.44
(+72%)
Market implied 74.7%, PE stable at 22.3
Bear Case
$7.57
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David W Ruttenberg
SELL
25000 shares
2025-09-15
David W Ruttenberg
SELL
25000 shares
2025-08-15
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Advanced ACEL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ACEL price and gamma walls.
