CHDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHDN - Churchill Downs Inc
$90.91
1.76 (1.97%)
▲
5d:
+8.25%
30d:
+3.8%
90d:
+2.02%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHDN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHDN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$124.63
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHDN is currently trading at $90.91, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.25 to $89.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.5) is in line with its historical norms (13.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $91.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHDN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.25 (+51.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $91.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHDN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.25 (+51.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$85.25 -
$89.01
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.0% below Wall St target ($137.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$85.25 -
$89.01
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.35
Resistance Level
$91.53
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.51
Wall Street Target
$137.25
(+51.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Profit Margin
13.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.5 vs 13.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$88.64
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$86.42
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$84.26
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$90.95
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.8%)
$187.56
(+106%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 5.8%)
$107.71
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 5.8%)
$91.55
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.43
Bull Case
$131.27
(+44%)
Analyst growth 33.9%, PE expands to 18.1
Base Case
$119.34
(+31%)
Market implied 33.9%, PE stable at 16.4
Bear Case
$60.62
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.5 to 13.5
Stabilization Target:
$98.13
(+7.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 2:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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