CHDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHDN - Churchill Downs Inc
$86.73
0.97 (1.13%)
▲
5d:
-1.59%
30d:
-7.01%
90d:
-2.81%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHDN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHDN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$130.06
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHDN is currently trading at $86.73, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $87.18 to $97.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (13.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.75 (+58.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.75 (+58.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$87.18 -
$97.42
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 58.8% below Wall St target ($137.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$87.18 -
$97.42
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.68
Resistance Level
$97.17
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.89
Wall Street Target
$137.75
(+58.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Profit Margin
13.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 13.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.31
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$78.11
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$74.13
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$86.69
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 6.2%)
$193.09
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 6.2%)
$103.98
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 6.2%)
$88.38
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.43
Bull Case
$126.78
(+46%)
Analyst growth 34.4%, PE expands to 17.4
Base Case
$115.25
(+33%)
Market implied 34.4%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$58.32
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 13.9
Stabilization Target:
$101.43
(+17.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 7:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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