ACHC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACHC - Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.
$13.44
0.39 (2.99%)
▲
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ACHC is down 11.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ACHC is down 11.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.22
Based on -4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.35
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACHC is currently trading at $13.44, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.85 to $14.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.5) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACHC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.56, while resistance sits at $15.79.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.07 (+46.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACHC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.56, while resistance sits at $15.79.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.07 (+46.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$12.85 -
$14.81
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ACHC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.1% below Wall St target ($19.07)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.7% growth with 4.4% revenue growth
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.8% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$12.85 -
$14.81
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.56
Resistance Level
$15.79
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.49
Wall Street Target
$19.07
(+46.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-45.9%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.14
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$13.23
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$13.33
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.98
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -12.2%)
$28.31
(+117%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: -12.2%)
$9.51
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: -12.2%)
$8.09
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.16
Bull Case
$22.20
(+65%)
Analyst growth 50.1%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$20.18
(+50%)
Market implied 50.1%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$9.14
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACHC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ACHC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ACHC price and gamma walls.
