ACIW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACIW - ACI Worldwide, Inc.
$40.87
0.06 (0.15%)
▲
5d:
-12.39%
30d:
-3.79%
90d:
+4.07%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ACIW is down 12.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ACIW is down 12.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.07
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACIW is currently trading at $40.87, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.25 to $44.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.7) compared to its historical average (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACIW is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.00 (+56.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACIW is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.00 (+56.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$41.25 -
$44.51
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 56.6% below Wall St target ($64.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.4% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.25 -
$44.51
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.00
Resistance Level
$48.54
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.70
Wall Street Target
$64.00
(+56.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.7%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 12.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.15
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$37.51
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$35.93
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$40.98
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 8.5%)
$107.61
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 8.5%)
$52.24
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 8.5%)
$44.40
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.98
Bull Case
$89.90
(+120%)
Analyst growth 92.9%, PE expands to 23.5
Base Case
$81.72
(+100%)
Market implied 92.9%, PE stable at 21.4
Bear Case
$28.80
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.7 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$46.60
(+14.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 5:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACIW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Juan Benitez II
BUY
2400 shares
2026-03-03
Adalio T Sanchez
BUY
3000 shares
2026-03-02
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