ADBE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADBE - Adobe Inc.
$241.13
6.29 (2.68%)
▲
5d:
-2.63%
30d:
-8.11%
90d:
-31.85%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADBE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ADBE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$451.29
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$280.21
13.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADBE is currently trading at $241.13, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $243.17 to $271.50. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.9) compared to its historical average (11.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $233.16, while resistance sits at $258.91.
Market Sentiment: ADBE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $328.19 (+39.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADBE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $233.16, while resistance sits at $258.91.
Market Sentiment: ADBE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $328.19 (+39.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$243.17 -
$271.50
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADBE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.7% below Wall St target ($328.19)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$243.17 -
$271.50
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$233.16
Resistance Level
$258.91
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.91
Wall Street Target
$328.19
(+39.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
29.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 11.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$214.41
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$195.76
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$178.72
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→12)
$234.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.9%)
$827.81
(+253%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 11.9%)
$329.29
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 11.9%)
$279.89
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.17
Bull Case
$419.00
(+69%)
Analyst growth 53.5%, PE expands to 15.9
Base Case
$380.91
(+54%)
Market implied 53.5%, PE stable at 14.5
Bear Case
$168.74
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 11.7
Stabilization Target:
$308.37
(+31.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADBE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
7
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-17
John Boozman
SELL
2026-02-13
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Advanced ADBE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADBE price and gamma walls.
