ADP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADP - Automatic Data Processing
$204.33
3.08 (1.53%)
▲
5d:
-2.57%
30d:
-4.68%
90d:
-21.06%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
29d
Smart Money Accumulation
ADP is down 7.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $300 2026-03-20 with 861 OI. Call ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ADP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$338.24
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$210.02
2.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADP is currently trading at $204.33, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $206.06 to $218.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.8) compared to its historical average (20.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $198.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $271.40 (+34.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $198.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $271.40 (+34.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$206.06 -
$218.39
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.9% below Wall St target ($271.40)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$206.06 -
$218.39
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$198.59
Resistance Level
$214.30
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.82
Wall Street Target
$271.40
(+34.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Profit Margin
20.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 20.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$188.17
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$175.94
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$164.50
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→21)
$201.47
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.1%)
$348.11
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 9.1%)
$261.39
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 9.1%)
$222.19
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.41
Bull Case
$263.84
(+26%)
Analyst growth 14.9%, PE expands to 22.1
Base Case
$239.86
(+14%)
Market implied 14.9%, PE stable at 20.1
Bear Case
$141.91
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.8 to 20.6
Stabilization Target:
$246.47
(+22.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher D'ambrosio
SELL
543 shares
2026-03-16
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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Advanced ADP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADP price and gamma walls.
