Is ADP stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ADP is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: ADP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of ADP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ADP to be between $253.19 and $262.32. The current price is $246.82.

What is the analyst price target for ADP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ADP is $289.79. This implies a potential upside of 17.8% from current levels.

ADP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ADP - Automatic Data Processing

SERVICES-COMPUTER PROCESSING & DATA PREPARATION

$246.82

0.85 (0.35%) ▲

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your ADP Gains

Last Updated: January 30, 2026

Earnings: Jan 28, 2026 0d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 9.1%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$375.16

Based on 6.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$232.95

Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.9x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ADP is currently trading at $246.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $253.19 to $262.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.6) compared to its historical average (22.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $243.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: ADP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $289.79 (+17.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $253.19 - $262.32

Company Quality Score 60/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 54.8%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($289.79)

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $253.19 - $262.32

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $243.68

Resistance Level $261.09

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 20.60

Wall Street Target $289.79 (+17.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 7.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 6.4%

Profit Margin 19.8%

Valuation Discount vs History -3.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 20.6 vs 22.9 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -3.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $237.36 (-4%)

2-Year Target $229.05 (-7%)

3-Year Target $221.04 (-10%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 21→23) $245.67 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.1%) $345.76 (+41%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 9.1%) $319.47 (+30%)

Bear: (PE: 17.5, Growth: 9.1%) $271.55 (+10%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 24.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.13

Bull Case $324.97 (+32%)

Analyst growth 17.8%, PE expands to 27.2

Base Case $295.43 (+20%)

Market implied 17.8%, PE stable at 24.8

Bear Case $170.47 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.6 to 22.9

Stabilization Target: $273.38 (+11.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +11.1%

Last updated: January 31, 2026 5:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:47 AM

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Technical Signals Check

Is ADP showing a specific setup today?

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna SELL 2025-09-29

Christopher D'ambrosio SELL 597 shares 2025-09-10

Michael A Bonarti SELL 8728 shares 2025-09-09

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