Is ADSK stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ADSK is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: ADSK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of ADSK stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ADSK to be between $262.19 and $294.42. The current price is $252.87.

What is the analyst price target for ADSK?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ADSK is $365.58. This implies a potential upside of 43.0% from current levels.

ADSK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ADSK - Autodesk Inc

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$252.87

-2.81 (-1.10%) ▼

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

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Last Updated: January 30, 2026

Earnings: Feb 26, 2026 25d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADSK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 13.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$439.52

Based on 8.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$272.91

7.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ADSK is currently trading at $252.87, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $262.19 to $294.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.0) compared to its historical average (28.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 26.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $247.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: ADSK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $365.58 (+43.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $262.19 - $294.42

Company Quality Score 57/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 43.0% below Wall St target ($365.58)
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.3%) - monitor closely

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $262.19 - $294.42

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $247.20

Resistance Level $274.25

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 22.02

Wall Street Target $365.58 (+43.0%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 18.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 26.0%

Profit Margin 16.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -7.8% cheaper

PE vs Historical 22.0 vs 28.1 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -7.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $235.74 (-8%)

2-Year Target $217.35 (-15%)

3-Year Target $200.40 (-22%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 22→28) $255.75 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.3, Growth: 13.4%) $377.92 (+48%)

Base: (SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 13.4%) $373.15 (+46%)

Bear: (PE: 18.7, Growth: 13.4%) $317.18 (+24%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 23.53 | Forward EPS (Implied): $10.75

Bull Case $305.34 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 24.7

Base Case $252.87 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.5

Bear Case $193.45 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 21.2

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.0 to 28.1

Stabilization Target: $326.30 (+27.6%)

PE Expansion Potential: +27.6%

Last updated: January 31, 2026 4:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:00 AM

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Technical Signals Check

Is ADSK showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check

Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ayanna Howard SELL 917 shares 2025-09-29

Steven M Blum SELL 22420 shares 2025-09-05

Ruth Ann Keene SELL 2761 shares 2025-09-03

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Advanced ADSK Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADSK price and gamma walls.

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