ADSK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADSK - Autodesk Inc
$238.07
8.23 (3.58%)
▲
5d:
-3.79%
30d:
-3.17%
90d:
-20.83%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
ADSK is down 7.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $280 2026-03-20 with 1,004 OI. Call ratio: 73% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADSK trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADSK trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$436.19
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$270.84
12.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADSK is currently trading at $238.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $230.20 to $255.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.7) compared to its historical average (24.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $229.24, while resistance sits at $259.39. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $331.62 (+44.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $229.24, while resistance sits at $259.39. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $331.62 (+44.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$230.20 -
$255.62
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 44.3% below Wall St target ($331.62)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$230.20 -
$255.62
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$229.24
Resistance Level
$259.39
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.72
Wall Street Target
$331.62
(+44.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.3%
Profit Margin
15.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.7 vs 24.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$213.98
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$199.22
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$185.47
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→25)
$230.40
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.8%)
$384.86
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.7, Growth: 13.8%)
$338.86
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.8, Growth: 13.8%)
$288.03
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 47.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.23
Bull Case
$545.58
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 52.2
Base Case
$495.98
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 47.4
Bear Case
$168.63
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.7 to 24.5
Stabilization Target:
$285.52
(+24.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 12:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADSK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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Advanced ADSK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADSK price and gamma walls.
