ADUS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADUS - Addus HomeCare Corp.
$94.38
-0.81 (-0.85%)
▼
5d:
-5.41%
30d:
-8.84%
90d:
-14.32%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADUS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ADUS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$154.31
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$95.82
1.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADUS is currently trading at $94.38, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.82 to $108.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.7) compared to its historical average (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 52.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADUS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $94.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $139.46 (+47.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADUS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $94.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $139.46 (+47.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$97.82 -
$108.52
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.8% below Wall St target ($139.46)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.4% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$97.82 -
$108.52
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.66
(3.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.40
Resistance Level
$103.09
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.68
Wall Street Target
$139.46
(+47.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
52.1%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 15.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$88.34
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$82.69
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$77.39
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$94.60
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.0%)
$209.41
(+122%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: 8.0%)
$118.81
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 8.0%)
$100.99
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.22
Bull Case
$155.77
(+56%)
Analyst growth 42.6%, PE expands to 20.9
Base Case
$141.61
(+42%)
Market implied 42.6%, PE stable at 19.0
Bear Case
$67.51
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.7 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$115.36
(+22.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 8:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADUS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Cliff Donald Blessing
SELL
177 shares
2026-02-25
Darby Anderson
SELL
396 shares
2026-02-25
David W Tucker
SELL
379 shares
2026-02-25
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