AES Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AES - AES Corporation
$14.03
0.03 (0.18%)
▲
5d:
-0.39%
30d:
-18.84%
90d:
-0.32%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
AES is down 18.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $15 2026-05-15 with 9,729 OI. Call ratio: 89% View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AES shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AES shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.34
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.39
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AES is currently trading at $14.03, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.71 to $15.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.9) is in line with its historical norms (6.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$13.71 -
$15.75
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($15.33)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.71 -
$15.75
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.00
Resistance Level
$14.23
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.86
Wall Street Target
$15.33
(+9.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-31.7%
Profit Margin
7.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 6.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.69
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$13.39
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$13.10
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$14.07
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.1%)
$60.33
(+331%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.9, Growth: 4.1%)
$15.80
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: 4.1%)
$13.43
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.31
Bull Case
$28.25
(+101%)
Analyst growth 82.1%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$25.68
(+82%)
Market implied 82.1%, PE stable at 10.8
Bear Case
$9.59
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.9 to 6.3
Stabilization Target:
$15.04
(+7.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 2:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AES showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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