AES Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AES - AES Corporation
$14.65
-0.39 (-2.59%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
24d
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3 traders called AES this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AES shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AES shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.66
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.59
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AES is currently trading at $14.65, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.99 to $14.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.63, while resistance sits at $15.35.
Market Sentiment: AES has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.63, while resistance sits at $15.35.
Market Sentiment: AES has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$13.99 -
$14.76
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($15.29)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.99 -
$14.76
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.63
Resistance Level
$15.35
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.32
Wall Street Target
$15.29
(+4.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.3%
Profit Margin
8.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 6.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.84
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$15.03
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$15.23
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.71
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.4%)
$64.14
(+338%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 7.4%)
$18.17
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 7.4%)
$15.44
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.52
Bull Case
$25.42
(+74%)
Analyst growth 52.1%, PE expands to 11.0
Base Case
$23.11
(+58%)
Market implied 52.1%, PE stable at 10.0
Bear Case
$10.33
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 4:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AES showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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