AJG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AJG - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
$249.37
3.53 (1.44%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 29, 2026
0d
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1 traders called AJG this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AJG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AJG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$488.46
Based on 14.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$303.29
17.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AJG is currently trading at $249.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $250.34 to $262.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.5) is in line with its historical norms (19.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $236.53, while resistance sits at $258.59.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $293.56 (+19.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $236.53, while resistance sits at $258.59.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $293.56 (+19.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$250.34 -
$262.98
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($293.56)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$250.34 -
$262.98
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$236.53
Resistance Level
$258.59
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.50
Wall Street Target
$293.56
(+19.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.2%
Profit Margin
13.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.5 vs 19.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$242.64
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$239.49
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$236.38
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
$245.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 24.2%)
$567.56
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.5, Growth: 24.2%)
$470.97
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.7, Growth: 24.2%)
$400.33
(+63%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.26
Bull Case
$533.13
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.6
Base Case
$484.66
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.7
Bear Case
$164.78
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.5 to 19.2
Stabilization Target:
$255.07
(+3.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.8%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AJG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Douglas K Howell
SELL
8000 shares
2025-09-22
Douglas K Howell
SELL
6000 shares
2025-09-19
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