AJG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AJG - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
$215.95
8.85 (4.27%)
▲
5d:
-0.36%
30d:
-5.37%
90d:
-17.41%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
AJG is down 3.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $230 2026-05-15 with 386 OI. Call ratio: 86% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AJG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AJG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$372.82
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$231.49
6.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AJG is currently trading at $215.95, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $209.25 to $223.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.5) compared to its historical average (17.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $218.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $271.37 (+25.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $218.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $271.37 (+25.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$209.25 -
$223.68
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.7% below Wall St target ($271.37)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$209.25 -
$223.68
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$204.58
Resistance Level
$218.83
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.54
Wall Street Target
$271.37
(+25.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.3%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 17.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$204.94
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$194.48
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$184.57
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$215.75
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 12.3%)
$470.38
(+118%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 12.3%)
$306.07
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 12.3%)
$260.16
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.74
Bull Case
$472.60
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 41.2
Base Case
$429.64
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 37.4
Bear Case
$146.08
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.5 to 17.0
Stabilization Target:
$252.44
(+16.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 6:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AJG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kelly Morrison
SELL
2026-03-08
Kelly Morrison
SELL
2026-03-08
Scott R Hudson
SELL
3800 shares
2026-03-06
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AJG price and gamma walls.
