ALAB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALAB - Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock
$150.62
-9.84 (-6.13%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 10, 2026
9d
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1 traders called ALAB this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ALAB is down 11.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ALAB is down 11.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$115.25
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$71.56
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALAB is currently trading at $150.62, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $162.07 to $177.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 67.8) is in line with its historical norms (68.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALAB is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $149.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $199.15 (+24.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALAB is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $149.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $199.15 (+24.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$162.07 -
$177.09
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALAB? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 24.1% below Wall St target ($199.15)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$162.07 -
$177.09
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$149.13
Resistance Level
$189.80
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
67.78
Wall Street Target
$199.15
(+24.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
103.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-62.5%
Profit Margin
27.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
67.8 vs 68.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$160.30
(0%)
2-Year Target
$160.14
(0%)
3-Year Target
$159.98
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 68→68)
$160.50
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 67.8, Growth: 33.1%)
$378.46
(+136%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 33.1%)
$124.52
(-22%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 33.1%)
$105.84
(-34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (70x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (68x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 70.42 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.14
Bull Case
$181.87
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 73.9
Base Case
$150.62
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 70.4
Bear Case
$115.22
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 63.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 67.8 to 68.0
Stabilization Target:
$160.98
(+0.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.3%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALAB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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Advanced ALAB Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALAB price and gamma walls.
