ALAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALAR - Alarum Technologies Ltd. American Depositary Share
$6.35
-1.67 (-20.82%)
▼
5d:
-20.43%
30d:
-36.63%
90d:
+4.79%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ALAR is down 20.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ALAR is down 20.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.93
62.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALAR is currently trading at $6.35, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.92 to $9.80. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (37.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 32.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALAR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 20.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+152.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALAR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 20.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+152.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$7.92 -
$9.80
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-20.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 152.0% below Wall St target ($16.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -20.4% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.92 -
$9.80
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.20
Resistance Level
$9.55
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.34
Wall Street Target
$16.00
(+152.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
64.2%
Profit Margin
2.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-32.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 37.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-32.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.71
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$5.14
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.63
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→37)
$15.19
(+139%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 80.6%)
$41.16
(+548%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 80.6%)
$21.43
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 80.6%)
$18.22
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 41.84 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.15
Bull Case
$7.67
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 43.9
Base Case
$6.35
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 41.8
Bear Case
$4.86
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 37.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.3 to 37.2
Stabilization Target:
$20.83
(+228.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+228.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 4:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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