ALKS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ALKS - Alkermes Inc. plc

PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
$34.84
-0.21 (-0.60%) ▼
5d: +16.44%
30d: +18.99%
90d: +24.52%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Protect Your ALKS Gains
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation

ALKS is down 5.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $35 2026-05-15 with 178 OI. Call ratio: 60% View Scanner →

Strength: 3.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ALKS is 8.8% above fair value ($32.03). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.54
Based on -5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.38
Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ALKS is currently trading at $34.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.42 to $32.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.5) compared to its historical average (14.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.2% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ALKS is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $27.31, while resistance sits at $36.48.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.71 (+25.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Fair Price Range $27.42 - $32.03
Company Quality Score 63/100 (BUY)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 49.5%

Protect Your Profits

ALKS is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.8% above fair value)
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 25.4% below Wall St target ($43.71)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.2% growth with -10.6% revenue growth

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $27.42 - $32.03
Current vs Fair Value EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $27.31
Resistance Level $36.48
Current Trend Sideways
Technical data as of Apr 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 17.47
Wall Street Target $43.71 (+25.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) -10.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -67.0%
Profit Margin 16.4%
Valuation Premium vs History +6.2% premium
PE vs Historical 17.5 vs 14.6 STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +6.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $37.00 (+6%)
2-Year Target $39.29 (+13%)
3-Year Target $41.73 (+20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 17→15) PE COMPRESSION $34.87 (+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.6, Growth: -15.2%) $29.90 (+-14%)
Base: (SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: -15.2%) $25.40 (-27%)
Bear: (PE: 14.6, Growth: -15.2%) $21.22 (-39%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.43
Bull Case $44.87 (+62%)
Analyst growth 44.9%, PE expands to 21.7
Base Case $40.79 (+47%)
Market implied 44.9%, PE stable at 19.7
Bear Case $19.14 (-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: April 02, 2026 7:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:05 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christian Todd Nichols SELL 6000 shares 2026-03-02
Craig C Hopkinson SELL 9000 shares 2026-03-02
David Joseph Gaffin SELL 2034 shares 2026-03-02

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Advanced ALKS Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALKS price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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