HCM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCM - HUTCHMED (China) Limited American Depositary Shares
$11.44
0.66 (6.12%)
▲
5d:
+11.18%
30d:
-0.69%
90d:
-24.44%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 02, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HCM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HCM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.03
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.92
23.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCM is currently trading at $11.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.33 to $11.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.2) compared to its historical average (30.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: HCM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.83 (+99.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: HCM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.83 (+99.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.33 -
$11.35
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 99.6% below Wall St target ($22.83)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.33 -
$11.35
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.77
Resistance Level
$11.64
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.18
Wall Street Target
$22.83
(+99.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-16.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.1%
Profit Margin
83.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.2 vs 30.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.49
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$9.62
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$8.82
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→30)
$11.45
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.2, Growth: 28.5%)
$24.26
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 28.5%)
$22.80
(+99%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 28.5%)
$19.38
(+69%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.65
Bull Case
$5.93
(-48%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 4.5
Base Case
$5.39
(-53%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 4.1
Bear Case
$7.33
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.2 to 30.1
Stabilization Target:
$14.85
(+29.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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