HCM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCM - HUTCHMED (China) Limited American Depositary Shares
$12.69
0.02 (0.16%)
▲
5d:
-4.66%
30d:
-17.06%
90d:
-13.97%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 04, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HCM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HCM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.29
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.70
19.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCM is currently trading at $12.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.11 to $15.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.4) compared to its historical average (33.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.85 (+80.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.85 (+80.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.11 -
$15.20
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 80.1% below Wall St target ($22.85)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.11 -
$15.20
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.53
Resistance Level
$13.55
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.43
Wall Street Target
$22.85
(+80.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-16.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.1%
Profit Margin
83.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.4 vs 33.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.47
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$10.37
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$9.37
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→33)
$12.70
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.4, Growth: 35.3%)
$31.40
(+147%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 35.3%)
$28.33
(+123%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 35.3%)
$24.08
(+90%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.65
Bull Case
$6.97
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 5.3
Base Case
$6.33
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 4.8
Bear Case
$8.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.4 to 33.1
Stabilization Target:
$17.20
(+35.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 7:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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