BCRX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BCRX - BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc
$9.51
-0.09 (-0.94%)
▼
5d:
+6.85%
30d:
+0.74%
90d:
+39.85%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
BCRX is down 4.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $10 2026-06-18 with 15,036 OI. Call ratio: 87% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.9/10
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10 traders called BCRX this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BCRX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BCRX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.41
42.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BCRX is currently trading at $9.51, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.82 to $9.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.3) compared to its historical average (17.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BCRX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.79, while resistance sits at $9.82.
Market Sentiment: BCRX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.50 (+124.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BCRX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.79, while resistance sits at $9.82.
Market Sentiment: BCRX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.50 (+124.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$8.82 -
$9.57
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 124.0% below Wall St target ($21.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.82 -
$9.57
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.79
Resistance Level
$9.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.31
Wall Street Target
$21.50
(+124.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Profit Margin
-51.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 17.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.64
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$7.78
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$7.00
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→17)
$9.89
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 39.3%)
$46.45
(+384%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: 39.3%)
$25.94
(+170%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 39.3%)
$22.05
(+130%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.3 to 17.4
Stabilization Target:
$13.57
(+41.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+41.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 3:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BCRX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alane P Barnes
SELL
150000 shares
2026-03-16
Alane P Barnes
SELL
21773 shares
2025-12-22
Alane P Barnes
SELL
19770 shares
2025-12-03
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Advanced BCRX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BCRX price and gamma walls.
