ALNY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALNY - Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$312.78
11.11 (3.68%)
▲
5d:
+6.69%
30d:
+9.32%
90d:
-4.85%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALNY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALNY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$660.84
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$410.33
23.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALNY is currently trading at $312.78, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $285.61 to $299.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.0) compared to its historical average (26.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $317.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALNY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $434.72 (+39.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $317.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALNY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $434.72 (+39.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$285.61 -
$299.49
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 39.0% below Wall St target ($434.72)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$285.61 -
$299.49
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$273.11
Resistance Level
$317.17
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.04
Wall Street Target
$434.72
(+39.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
96.4%
Profit Margin
12.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.0 vs 26.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$299.02
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$285.86
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$273.28
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→26)
$313.10
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.0, Growth: 44.1%)
$935.68
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 44.1%)
$884.41
(+183%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 44.1%)
$751.75
(+140%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 32.89 | Forward EPS (Implied): $9.51
Bull Case
$377.68
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.5
Base Case
$312.78
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 32.9
Bear Case
$239.28
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.0 to 26.4
Stabilization Target:
$358.35
(+14.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALNY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Melissa Mclaughlin
SELL
2286 shares
2026-04-06
Melissa Mclaughlin
SELL
1624 shares
2026-04-02
Kevin Joseph Fitzgerald
SELL
1652 shares
2026-03-03
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