ALNY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALNY - Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$293.45
1.97 (0.68%)
▲
5d:
-0.83%
30d:
-11.98%
90d:
-4.87%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALNY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALNY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$675.45
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$419.40
30.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALNY is currently trading at $293.45, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $295.48 to $323.66. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.1) compared to its historical average (27.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $284.28, while resistance sits at $311.88.
Market Sentiment: ALNY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $449.48 (+53.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $284.28, while resistance sits at $311.88.
Market Sentiment: ALNY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $449.48 (+53.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$295.48 -
$323.66
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 53.2% below Wall St target ($449.48)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$295.48 -
$323.66
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$284.28
Resistance Level
$311.88
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.15
Wall Street Target
$449.48
(+53.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
96.4%
Profit Margin
12.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.2 vs 27.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$267.63
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$244.08
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$222.60
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→28)
$293.63
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 48.6%)
$1004.18
(+242%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.2, Growth: 48.6%)
$963.67
(+228%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.0, Growth: 48.6%)
$819.12
(+179%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 31.65 | Forward EPS (Implied): $9.27
Bull Case
$354.34
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 33.2
Base Case
$293.45
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 31.7
Bear Case
$224.49
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 28.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.2 to 27.9
Stabilization Target:
$387.09
(+31.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 6:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALNY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Melissa Mclaughlin
SELL
2286 shares
2026-04-06
Melissa Mclaughlin
SELL
1624 shares
2026-04-02
Kevin Joseph Fitzgerald
SELL
1652 shares
2026-03-03
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