ALRS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALRS - Alerus Financial Corporation Common Stock
$26.55
-0.23 (-0.86%)
▼
5d:
-1.15%
30d:
+5.95%
90d:
+5.15%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
ALRS is up 5.8% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $25 2026-06-18 with 2 OI. Put ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALRS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALRS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.73
Based on -0.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.36
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALRS is currently trading at $26.55, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.18 to $26.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$25.18 -
$26.78
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
24th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 24th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($28.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.18 -
$26.78
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.86
(7.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.46
Resistance Level
$27.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.58
Wall Street Target
$28.00
(+5.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.2%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.97
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$27.41
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$27.84
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.46
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -4.7%)
$52.92
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: -4.7%)
$22.96
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: -4.7%)
$19.52
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.05
Bull Case
$58.92
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 28.1
Base Case
$53.56
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 25.5
Bear Case
$18.21
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 6:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALRS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ALRS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALRS price and gamma walls.
