ALRS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALRS - Alerus Financial Corporation Common Stock
$31.11
-0.45 (-1.43%)
▼
5d:
+1.57%
30d:
+7.57%
90d:
+31.77%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALRS trades at premium valuation expecting 6.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: ALRS trades at premium valuation expecting 6.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.98
Based on -2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALRS is currently trading at $31.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.80 to $30.66. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (9.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALRS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALRS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$28.80 -
$30.66
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
35th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALRS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 35th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($29.75)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.7% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$28.80 -
$30.66
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.18
(7.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.46
Resistance Level
$31.86
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.57
Wall Street Target
$29.75
(-4.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.2%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 9.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.19
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$35.42
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$37.79
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.04
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -9.7%)
$43.09
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: -9.7%)
$22.88
(-26%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: -9.7%)
$18.80
(-40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.05
Bull Case
$69.43
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 33.1
Base Case
$63.12
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.1
Bear Case
$21.46
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALRS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ALRS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALRS price and gamma walls.
