ALTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALTO - Alto Ingredients, Inc. Common Stock
$4.59
0.08 (1.77%)
▲
5d:
+11.14%
30d:
+101.32%
90d:
+51.49%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
ALTO is down 4.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $5 2026-05-15 with 428 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALTO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALTO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.72
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.42
15.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALTO is currently trading at $4.59, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.76 to $4.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALTO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.03, while resistance sits at $4.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALTO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.03, while resistance sits at $4.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$2.76 -
$4.70
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
MODERATE
Confidence Score
59.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($5.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.9% growth with -1.9% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$2.76 -
$4.70
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.03
Resistance Level
$4.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.11
Wall Street Target
$5.00
(+8.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.2%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.63
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$4.67
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$4.72
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.60
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 52.2%)
$26.40
(+475%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 52.2%)
$15.49
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 52.2%)
$13.17
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.16
Bull Case
$9.15
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 28.6
Base Case
$8.32
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 26.0
Bear Case
$2.83
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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