AMD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMD - Advanced Micro Devices
$236.73
-15.45 (-6.13%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
3d
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38 traders called AMD this week
84% bullish • 8 bearish
84% bullish • 8 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMD is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AMD is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$321.10
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$199.38
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMD is currently trading at $236.73, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $209.96 to $244.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 38.2) compared to its historical average (33.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $225.41, while resistance sits at $266.96. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $288.47 (+14.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $225.41, while resistance sits at $266.96. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $288.47 (+14.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$209.96 -
$244.33
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($288.47)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.8% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$209.96 -
$244.33
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$225.41
Resistance Level
$266.96
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
38.23
Wall Street Target
$288.47
(+14.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
60.3%
Profit Margin
10.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.4% premium
PE vs Historical
38.2 vs 33.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$263.28
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$274.86
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$286.95
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 38→34)
PE COMPRESSION
$252.17
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 38.2, Growth: 65.8%)
$851.11
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 65.8%)
$496.40
(+97%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 65.8%)
$421.94
(+67%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (38x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 39.68 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.35
Bull Case
$304.51
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 41.7
Base Case
$252.18
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 39.7
Bear Case
$192.92
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 35.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 3:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
16800 shares
2025-10-15
Ava Hahn
SELL
2868 shares
2025-10-06
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2250 shares
2025-09-24
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