AON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AON - Aon plc Class A
$350.85
7.90 (2.30%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$511.85
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$317.82
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AON is currently trading at $350.85, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $338.80 to $354.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.0) is in line with its historical norms (18.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AON is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $351.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $394.84 (+15.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AON is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $351.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $394.84 (+15.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$338.80 -
$354.59
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($394.84)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$338.80 -
$354.59
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$325.90
Resistance Level
$351.04
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.03
Wall Street Target
$394.84
(+15.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.4%
Profit Margin
16.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.0 vs 18.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$341.58
(0%)
2-Year Target
$340.21
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$338.85
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→18)
$344.00
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.1%)
$598.24
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 12.1%)
$483.59
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 12.1%)
$411.05
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.50
Bull Case
$553.74
(+62%)
Analyst growth 52.2%, PE expands to 29.1
Base Case
$503.40
(+47%)
Market implied 52.2%, PE stable at 26.5
Bear Case
$224.91
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.0 to 18.3
Stabilization Target:
$348.16
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 2:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-21
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AON price and gamma walls.
