AJG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AJG - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
$198.78
1.09 (0.55%)
▲
5d:
-0.05%
30d:
-11.29%
90d:
-4.64%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
AJG is down 4.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $240 2026-06-18 with 241 OI. Call ratio: 74% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AJG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AJG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$355.05
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$220.46
9.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AJG is currently trading at $198.78, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $201.80 to $221.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.3) compared to its historical average (16.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $190.75, while resistance sits at $211.07.
Market Sentiment: AJG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $267.11 (+35.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $190.75, while resistance sits at $211.07.
Market Sentiment: AJG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $267.11 (+35.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$201.80 -
$221.75
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AJG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.1% below Wall St target ($267.11)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$201.80 -
$221.75
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$190.75
Resistance Level
$211.08
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.31
Wall Street Target
$267.11
(+35.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.2%
Profit Margin
11.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 16.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$185.03
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$173.19
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$162.10
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$198.49
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 12.0%)
$459.86
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 12.0%)
$277.75
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 12.0%)
$236.08
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.01
Bull Case
$422.40
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 35.1
Base Case
$384.00
(+94%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 32.0
Bear Case
$130.56
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.3 to 16.3
Stabilization Target:
$242.06
(+22.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 3:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AJG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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Advanced AJG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AJG price and gamma walls.
