AJG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AJG - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
$252.44
12.77 (5.33%)
▲
5d:
+15.87%
30d:
+22.68%
90d:
+16.69%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AJG is 10.8% above its trading range ($227.83). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AJG is 10.8% above its trading range ($227.83). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$350.17
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$217.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AJG is currently trading at $252.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $204.87 to $227.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $252.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AJG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $252.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AJG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$204.87 -
$227.83
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
AJG is technically overbought (RSI 78). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+10.8% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($266.37)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$204.87 -
$227.83
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$208.08
Resistance Level
$252.96
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.97
Wall Street Target
$266.37
(+5.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.2%
Profit Margin
11.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
17.0 vs 15.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$258.50
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$264.70
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$271.06
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$252.30
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.7%)
$463.27
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.0, Growth: 12.7%)
$361.06
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 12.7%)
$306.90
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.18
Bull Case
$527.27
(+109%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.7
Base Case
$479.34
(+90%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.8
Bear Case
$162.98
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AJG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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