AOSL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOSL - Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited
$22.27
-0.09 (-0.40%)
▼
5d:
+0.09%
30d:
+7.79%
90d:
-20.63%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 3, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AOSL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AOSL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.94
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.93
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOSL is currently trading at $22.27, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.04 to $22.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 98.2) compared to its historical average (86.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOSL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $21.19, while resistance sits at $23.75.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOSL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $21.19, while resistance sits at $23.75.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$21.04 -
$22.77
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
31th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 31th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.33)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.4% growth with 44.9% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.04 -
$22.77
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.34
(10.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.19
Resistance Level
$23.75
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
98.24
Wall Street Target
$24.33
(+9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
44.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.4%
Profit Margin
-13.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.4% premium
PE vs Historical
98.2 vs 86.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.25
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$24.27
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$25.34
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 98→86)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.29
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
Last updated: February 04, 2026 9:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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