APP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APP - Applovin Corporation Class A Common Stock
$381.20
-10.01 (-2.56%)
▼
5d:
-13.83%
30d:
-14.32%
90d:
-47.5%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: APP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: APP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$994.95
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$617.79
38.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APP is currently trading at $381.20, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $403.64 to $476.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.6) compared to its historical average (33.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 84.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $387.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: APP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $648.57 (+70.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $387.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: APP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $648.57 (+70.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$403.64 -
$476.17
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding APP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 70.1% below Wall St target ($648.57)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-13.8%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$403.64 -
$476.17
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$387.01
Resistance Level
$473.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.65
Wall Street Target
$648.57
(+70.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
65.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
84.7%
Profit Margin
60.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.7 vs 33.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$343.08
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$308.77
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$277.89
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→33)
$493.14
(+29%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 29.9%)
$1002.96
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.7, Growth: 29.9%)
$835.16
(+119%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.9, Growth: 29.9%)
$709.89
(+86%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.04
Bull Case
$973.26
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 48.5
Base Case
$884.78
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 44.1
Bear Case
$300.83
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.7 to 33.1
Stabilization Target:
$676.46
(+77.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+77.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 8:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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2026-03-16
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40704 shares
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