Is AR stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AR is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: AR is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

What is the fair value of AR stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AR to be between $36.01 and $43.00. The current price is $44.16.

What is the analyst price target for AR?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AR is $47.23. This implies a potential upside of 6.8% from current levels.

AR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AR - ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION

CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS

$44.16

-0.07 (-0.16%) ▼

5d: +1.82%

30d: +19.09%

90d: +27.59%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your AR Gains

Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Apr 29, 2026 28d

Smart Money Distribution

AR is up 4.6% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $31 2026-04-17 with 29,443 OI. Put ratio: 62% View Scanner →

Strength: 3.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AR is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 5.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$54.17

Based on 4.8% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$33.64

Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AR is currently trading at $44.16, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.01 to $43.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $40.13, while resistance sits at $45.75.

Market Sentiment: AR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Fair Price Range $36.01 - $43.00

Company Quality Score 63/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 58.1%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($47.23)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $36.01 - $43.00

Current vs Fair Value EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $40.13

Resistance Level $45.75

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Mar 30, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.11

Wall Street Target $47.23 (+6.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 11.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 29.9%

Profit Margin 12.3%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.0% premium

PE vs Historical 10.1 vs 9.8 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $44.67 (+1%)

2-Year Target $45.12 (+2%)

3-Year Target $45.57 (+3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→10) PE COMPRESSION $44.15 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.4, Growth: 5.6%) $115.10 (+160%)

Base: (SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 5.6%) $52.09 (+18%)

Bear: (PE: 8.6, Growth: 5.6%) $44.28 (+0%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 21.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.03

Bull Case $94.80 (+123%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.4

Base Case $86.18 (+103%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.2

Bear Case $29.30 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: March 31, 2026 10:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Yvette K Schultz SELL 15000 shares 2026-03-09

Brendan E Krueger BUY 5000 shares 2025-11-07

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