ARCC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARCC - Ares Capital Corporation
$19.89
-0.27 (-1.34%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
Get Alerted When ARCC Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARCC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARCC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.28
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.21
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARCC is currently trading at $19.89, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.10 to $20.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARCC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.69 (+12.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARCC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.69 (+12.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$20.10 -
$20.79
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($22.69)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$20.10 -
$20.79
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.87
Resistance Level
$21.14
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.37
Wall Street Target
$22.69
(+12.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.2%
Profit Margin
45.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.10
(0%)
2-Year Target
$20.04
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$19.98
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$20.24
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -2.3%)
$40.42
(+101%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: -2.3%)
$18.79
(-7%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: -2.3%)
$15.97
(-21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.99
Bull Case
$21.70
(+9%)
Analyst growth -2.3%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$19.73
(-1%)
Market implied -2.3%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$13.73
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 10.5
Stabilization Target:
$20.42
(+1.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.3%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:42 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ARCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Asset Management Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Asset Management by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
KKR
KKR & Co LP |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$158 | 57 HOLD |
|
BLK
BlackRock Inc |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$1334 | 59 HOLD |
|
HASI
Hannon Armstrong Sustain… |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$40 | 63 BUY |
|
APO
Apollo Global Management… |
STRONG BUY
19 analysts |
$165 | 56 HOLD |
|
CRBG
Corebridge Financial Inc. |
STRONG BUY
14 analysts |
$38 | 66 BUY |
Advanced ARCC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARCC price and gamma walls.
