ARCC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARCC - Ares Capital Corporation
$17.45
-0.47 (-2.62%)
▼
5d:
-2.84%
30d:
-9.49%
90d:
-12.64%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
ARCC is up 3.6% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $18 2026-03-20 with 43,777 OI. Put ratio: 86% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARCC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ARCC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.36
Based on -18.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.95
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARCC is currently trading at $17.45, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.05 to $19.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.1) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARCC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARCC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.88 (+25.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARCC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARCC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.88 (+25.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$18.05 -
$19.15
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARCC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.4% below Wall St target ($21.88)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.05 -
$19.15
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.62
Resistance Level
$18.61
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.06
Wall Street Target
$21.88
(+25.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-24.9%
Profit Margin
42.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 10.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.80
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$16.18
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$15.58
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$17.37
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -40.9%)
$42.60
(+144%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: -40.9%)
$17.24
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: -40.9%)
$14.65
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.86
Bull Case
$20.45
(+12%)
Analyst growth 3.5%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$18.59
(+2%)
Market implied 3.5%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$12.21
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$19.45
(+11.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 8:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Scott C Lem
BUY
5186 shares
2026-02-06
Michael Kort Schnabel
BUY
12500 shares
2026-02-05
Michael Kort Schnabel
BUY
13000 shares
2025-10-31
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Advanced ARCC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARCC price and gamma walls.
