ARDT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARDT - Ardent Health, Inc.
$8.17
-0.07 (-0.85%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARDT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARDT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.34
Based on -11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.69
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARDT is currently trading at $8.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.41 to $9.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.0) is in line with its historical norms (6.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 53.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARDT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.07 (+59.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARDT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.07 (+59.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$8.41 -
$9.05
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 59.9% below Wall St target ($13.07)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.41 -
$9.05
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.75
(9.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.07
Resistance Level
$8.82
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.04
Wall Street Target
$13.07
(+59.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
53.2%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.0 vs 6.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.08
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$7.99
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$7.90
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$8.11
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -27.3%)
$21.99
(+169%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.0, Growth: -27.3%)
$5.96
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.1, Growth: -27.3%)
$5.06
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$8.30
(+2%)
Analyst growth -8.6%, PE expands to 6.1
Base Case
$7.54
(-8%)
Market implied -8.6%, PE stable at 5.6
Bear Case
$5.61
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.0 to 6.2
Stabilization Target:
$8.39
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 8:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:20 PM
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