ARDT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARDT - Ardent Health, Inc.
$8.67
0.11 (1.29%)
▲
5d:
-1.25%
30d:
-7.86%
90d:
-4.09%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARDT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARDT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.35
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.81
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARDT is currently trading at $8.67, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.66 to $9.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.4) compared to its historical average (6.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARDT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.25, while resistance sits at $9.06.
Market Sentiment: ARDT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.73 (+46.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARDT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.25, while resistance sits at $9.06.
Market Sentiment: ARDT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.73 (+46.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$8.66 -
$9.51
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.9% below Wall St target ($12.73)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.8% growth with -0.1% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.66 -
$9.51
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.71
(8.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.25
Resistance Level
$9.06
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.41
Wall Street Target
$12.73
(+46.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.6%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.8% premium
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 6.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.00
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$9.34
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$9.70
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$8.64
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 3.8%)
$29.22
(+237%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 3.8%)
$9.69
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 3.8%)
$8.23
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.96
Bull Case
$11.36
(+31%)
Analyst growth 21.9%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$10.32
(+20%)
Market implied 21.9%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$5.76
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 AM
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Is ARDT showing a specific setup today?
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