ARM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARM - Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
$136.96
-7.17 (-4.97%)
▼
5d:
+0.05%
30d:
+7.46%
90d:
+24.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)
See why ARM plays a critical role in the upcoming CPU supercycle alongside GPUs. Read Deep Dive →
Smart Money Distribution
ARM is up 19.2% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $115 2026-06-18 with 9,563 OI. Put ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$96.23
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.75
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARM is currently trading at $136.96, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $117.95 to $138.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 64.1) compared to its historical average (55.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $124.50, while resistance sits at $166.69. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: ARM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $164.73 (+20.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $124.50, while resistance sits at $166.69. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: ARM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $164.73 (+20.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$117.95 -
$138.59
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 20.3% below Wall St target ($164.73)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.1% growth with 26.3% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$117.95 -
$138.59
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$124.50
Resistance Level
$166.69
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
64.07
Wall Street Target
$164.73
(+20.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.3%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.1% premium
PE vs Historical
64.1 vs 55.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$143.94
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$151.29
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$159.00
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 64→55)
PE COMPRESSION
$136.73
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 64.1, Growth: 21.3%)
$244.34
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 21.3%)
$85.23
(-38%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 21.3%)
$72.44
(-47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 61.35 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.23
Bull Case
$165.29
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 64.4
Base Case
$136.89
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 61.4
Bear Case
$104.72
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 55.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 1:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 AM
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARM price and gamma walls.
