ARM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARM - Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
$105.36
-3.07 (-2.83%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
4d
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2 traders called ARM this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ARM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$110.95
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.89
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARM is currently trading at $105.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $107.67 to $115.22. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 47.6) is in line with its historical norms (48.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 120.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $104.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $157.16 (+44.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $104.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $157.16 (+44.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$107.67 -
$115.22
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.9% below Wall St target ($157.16)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.2% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$107.67 -
$115.22
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$104.11
Resistance Level
$123.50
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
47.58
Wall Street Target
$157.16
(+44.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
120.0%
Profit Margin
18.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
47.6 vs 48.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$107.45
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$106.49
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$105.53
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 48→49)
$108.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 47.6, Growth: 32.3%)
$251.32
(+132%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 32.3%)
$117.79
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 32.3%)
$100.12
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (51x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (48x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 50.51 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.15
Bull Case
$130.93
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 53.0
Base Case
$108.43
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 50.5
Bear Case
$82.95
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 45.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 47.6 to 48.9
Stabilization Target:
$111.44
(+2.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.8%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 3:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 PM
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