AROW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AROW - Arrow Financial Corp
$35.19
-0.54 (-1.51%)
▼
5d:
-5.28%
30d:
-3.3%
90d:
+1.5%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
AROW is down 3.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $35 2026-06-18 with 8 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AROW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AROW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.98
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.87
7.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AROW is currently trading at $35.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.66 to $37.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 116.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AROW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AROW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$35.66 -
$37.00
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
45th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AROW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 45th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($38.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.66 -
$37.00
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.76
(7.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.15
Resistance Level
$37.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.18
Wall Street Target
$38.00
(+8.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
29.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
116.7%
Profit Margin
30.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.31
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$33.45
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$32.62
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$35.07
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 16.2%)
$148.96
(+323%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 16.2%)
$55.24
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 16.2%)
$46.95
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.09
Bull Case
$54.28
(+54%)
Analyst growth 39.2%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$49.35
(+40%)
Market implied 39.2%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$24.11
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$37.84
(+7.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 7:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AROW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David S Demarco
BUY
3035 shares
2025-12-24
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Advanced AROW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AROW price and gamma walls.
