ARQT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARQT - Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. Common Stock
$26.07
0.26 (1.01%)
▲
5d:
-3.44%
30d:
+22.11%
90d:
+10.33%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 6, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARQT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 14.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARQT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 14.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.94
25.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARQT is currently trading at $26.07, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.16 to $26.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.6) compared to its historical average (35.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARQT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.25, while resistance sits at $28.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.62 (+32.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARQT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.25, while resistance sits at $28.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.62 (+32.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$22.16 -
$26.65
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.8% below Wall St target ($34.62)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.16 -
$26.65
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.25
Resistance Level
$28.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 6, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.56
Wall Street Target
$34.63
(+32.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
60.1%
Profit Margin
-0.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.6 vs 35.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.46
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$21.12
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$19.01
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→36)
$29.99
(+15%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.6, Growth: 371.7%)
$87.99
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 371.7%)
$84.95
(+226%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 371.7%)
$72.21
(+177%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.6 to 35.6
Stabilization Target:
$41.14
(+57.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+57.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 06, 2026 8:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARQT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Howard G Welgus
SELL
10000 shares
2026-04-01
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
Larry Todd Edwards
SELL
3687 shares
2026-03-02
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Advanced ARQT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARQT price and gamma walls.
