ASND Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASND - Ascendis Pharma A/S American Depositary Shares
$244.88
1.29 (0.53%)
▲
5d:
-0.51%
30d:
+1.31%
90d:
+12.28%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASND trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASND trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$204.34
Based on -2.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$126.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASND is currently trading at $244.88, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $223.46 to $241.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 26.2) compared to its historical average (33.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASND is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $250.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ASND has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $298.01 (+22.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASND is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $250.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ASND has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $298.01 (+22.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$223.46 -
$241.45
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.3% below Wall St target ($298.01)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$223.46 -
$241.45
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$220.66
Resistance Level
$250.27
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.18
Wall Street Target
$298.01
(+22.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
144.3%
Profit Margin
57.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.2 vs 33.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$223.85
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$205.72
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$189.05
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→34)
$243.35
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.2, Growth: -8.9%)
$184.31
(+-24%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: -8.9%)
$155.16
(-36%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: -8.9%)
$131.88
(-46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.93
Bull Case
$273.53
(+12%)
Analyst growth 4.2%, PE expands to 29.4
Base Case
$248.66
(+2%)
Market implied 4.2%, PE stable at 26.7
Bear Case
$162.30
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.2 to 33.7
Stabilization Target:
$313.54
(+28.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 11:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASND showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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