ATR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ATR - AptarGroup, Inc.
$126.02
2.66 (2.16%)
▲
5d:
+1.51%
30d:
-11.67%
90d:
+2.28%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
29d
Smart Money Accumulation
ATR is down 6.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $135 2026-04-17 with 3 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ATR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ATR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$219.10
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$136.05
7.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ATR is currently trading at $126.02, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $124.30 to $140.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.3) compared to its historical average (21.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ATR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $127.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ATR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (17th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $163.00 (+32.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ATR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $127.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ATR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (17th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $163.00 (+32.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$124.30 -
$140.19
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
17th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 17th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.1% below Wall St target ($163.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$124.30 -
$140.19
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.33
(5.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$120.31
Resistance Level
$127.34
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.30
Wall Street Target
$163.00
(+32.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-23.5%
Profit Margin
10.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.3 vs 21.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$118.67
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$114.16
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$109.82
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→22)
$123.47
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.3%)
$218.74
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.3, Growth: 15.3%)
$188.90
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.4, Growth: 15.3%)
$160.57
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.90
Bull Case
$144.25
(+16%)
Analyst growth 8.3%, PE expands to 22.6
Base Case
$131.14
(+6%)
Market implied 8.3%, PE stable at 20.5
Bear Case
$82.32
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.3 to 21.7
Stabilization Target:
$138.69
(+12.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 4:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ATR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gael Touya
SELL
3500 shares
2026-02-18
Daniel Ackerman
SELL
15000 shares
2025-12-12
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2025-11-19
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Advanced ATR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ATR price and gamma walls.
