AUPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
$15.61
-0.19 (-1.20%)
▼
5d:
-11.05%
30d:
+1.43%
90d:
+0.9%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
24d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AUPH is down 11.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AUPH is down 11.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.75
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.47
15.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AUPH is currently trading at $15.61, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.33 to $17.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.0) compared to its historical average (16.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 56.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$15.33 -
$17.08
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AUPH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.1% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.33 -
$17.08
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.19
Resistance Level
$19.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.96
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(+8.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
56.3%
Profit Margin
100.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 16.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.78
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$14.00
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$13.26
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$15.57
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.5%)
$38.46
(+146%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 16.5%)
$24.66
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 16.5%)
$20.96
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.16
Bull Case
$9.00
(-42%)
Analyst growth -48.2%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$8.18
(-48%)
Market implied -48.2%, PE stable at 7.3
Bear Case
$10.74
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.0 to 16.4
Stabilization Target:
$18.34
(+17.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 05, 2026 10:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AUPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Tang
BUY
516439 shares
2026-02-27
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Advanced AUPH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AUPH price and gamma walls.
