AUPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
$15.84
-0.19 (-1.19%)
▼
5d:
+4.62%
30d:
-1.31%
90d:
+10.69%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
AUPH is down 4.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $18 2026-07-17 with 635 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
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4 traders called AUPH this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AUPH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AUPH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.83
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.15
17.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AUPH is currently trading at $15.84, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.54 to $16.18. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.2) compared to its historical average (17.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 56.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$15.54 -
$16.18
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.54 -
$16.18
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.40
Resistance Level
$16.30
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.17
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(+7.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
56.3%
Profit Margin
100.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 17.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.89
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$14.00
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$13.16
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$15.79
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 16.5%)
$38.92
(+146%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 16.5%)
$25.02
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 16.5%)
$21.27
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.16
Bull Case
$9.08
(-43%)
Analyst growth -48.2%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$8.26
(-48%)
Market implied -48.2%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$10.85
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.2 to 17.0
Stabilization Target:
$19.01
(+20.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 7:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AUPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Tang
BUY
516439 shares
2026-02-27
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Advanced AUPH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AUPH price and gamma walls.
