AVA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVA - Avista Corporation
$41.29
0.50 (1.23%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.62
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.54
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVA is currently trading at $41.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.62 to $40.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.8) is in line with its historical norms (14.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$38.62 -
$40.39
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.60)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$38.62 -
$40.39
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.23
(3.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.41
Resistance Level
$41.31
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.76
Wall Street Target
$40.60
(-0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
56.4%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 14.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.20
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$41.61
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$42.03
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$40.71
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.2%)
$82.39
(+102%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 10.2%)
$54.54
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 10.2%)
$46.36
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.36
Bull Case
$51.98
(+26%)
Analyst growth 17.1%, PE expands to 18.8
Base Case
$47.26
(+15%)
Market implied 17.1%, PE stable at 17.1
Bear Case
$27.44
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Bryan Alden Cox
BUY
3671 shares
2025-09-16
David J Meyer
SELL
1367 shares
2025-09-05
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