AVA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVA - Avista Corporation
$40.39
0.45 (1.13%)
▲
5d:
+4.12%
30d:
-0.57%
90d:
+4.96%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AVA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AVA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.36
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.75
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVA is currently trading at $40.39, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.99 to $41.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.1) is in line with its historical norms (14.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $40.55. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $40.55. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$38.99 -
$41.17
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.67)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$38.99 -
$41.17
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.15
(2.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.17
Resistance Level
$40.55
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.12
Wall Street Target
$40.67
(+1.8%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Profit Margin
9.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 14.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.66
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$39.38
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$39.11
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$39.89
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.9%)
$79.58
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 7.9%)
$50.16
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 7.9%)
$42.64
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.38
Bull Case
$50.67
(+31%)
Analyst growth 20.1%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$46.06
(+19%)
Market implied 20.1%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$26.09
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.1 to 14.4
Stabilization Target:
$40.73
(+2.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 2:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alexis G Alexander
SELL
555 shares
2026-03-13
Bryan Alden Cox
SELL
1768 shares
2026-02-26
Wayne O Manuel
SELL
1785 shares
2025-12-16
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