Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AES is down 12.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.07
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.22
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: AES is currently trading at $14.22, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.81 to $16.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.0) is in line with its historical norms (6.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.33 (+14.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$14.81 -
$16.53
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AES? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
AES is a global power company that operates in 15 countries. Its generation portfolio totals over 32 gigawatts, including renewable energy (50%), gas (32%), coal (16%), and oil (2%). AES has majority ownership and operates six electric utilities distributing power to more than 2.5 million customers.
