AES Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AES - AES Corporation
$14.46
0.03 (0.21%)
▲
5d:
+1.19%
30d:
+0.07%
90d:
-10.74%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AES shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AES shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.00
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.52
6.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AES is currently trading at $14.46, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.35 to $14.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.0) is in line with its historical norms (6.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 951.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $14.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AES has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $14.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AES has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$14.35 -
$14.48
Company Quality Score
69/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($15.11)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.35 -
$14.48
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.24
Resistance Level
$14.47
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.05
Wall Street Target
$15.11
(+4.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
951.1%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.1 vs 6.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.34
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$14.23
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$14.12
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$14.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 18.3%)
$87.07
(+502%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.1, Growth: 18.3%)
$23.91
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.1, Growth: 18.3%)
$20.33
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.92
Bull Case
$19.75
(+37%)
Analyst growth 24.4%, PE expands to 8.3
Base Case
$17.95
(+24%)
Market implied 24.4%, PE stable at 7.5
Bear Case
$9.81
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.1 to 6.2
Stabilization Target:
$14.81
(+2.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AES showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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