AVAH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAH - Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$6.44
0.06 (0.94%)
▲
5d:
-2.57%
30d:
-13.32%
90d:
-22.97%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AVAH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AVAH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.30
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.26
22.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAH is currently trading at $6.44, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.61 to $7.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.1) compared to its historical average (13.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 465.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.93, while resistance sits at $7.18.
Market Sentiment: AVAH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.70 (+52.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.93, while resistance sits at $7.18.
Market Sentiment: AVAH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.70 (+52.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$6.61 -
$7.31
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 52.0% below Wall St target ($9.70)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$6.61 -
$7.31
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.81
(12.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.93
Resistance Level
$7.18
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.13
Wall Street Target
$9.70
(+52.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
465.2%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 13.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.74
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$5.17
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.65
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→13)
$6.67
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.6%)
$21.73
(+241%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 11.6%)
$8.88
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 11.6%)
$7.55
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.37
Bull Case
$13.56
(+102%)
Analyst growth 89.0%, PE expands to 19.4
Base Case
$12.32
(+84%)
Market implied 89.0%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$4.43
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 13.1
Stabilization Target:
$9.15
(+43.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+43.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edwin C Reisz
SELL
60769 shares
2026-02-19
Deborah Stewart
SELL
11181 shares
2026-02-19
Patrick A Cunningham
SELL
18436 shares
2026-02-19
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