AVAH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAH - Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$8.37
-0.03 (-0.33%)
▼
5d:
-6.46%
30d:
+2.47%
90d:
-10.37%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Mar 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AVAH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AVAH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.73
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.66
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAH is currently trading at $8.37, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.25 to $9.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.5) is in line with its historical norms (14.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 85.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAH is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.06, while resistance sits at $9.34.
Market Sentiment: AVAH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+31.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAH is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.06, while resistance sits at $9.34.
Market Sentiment: AVAH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+31.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$8.25 -
$9.07
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.0% below Wall St target ($11.00)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.5%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.25 -
$9.07
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.07
(12.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.06
Resistance Level
$9.34
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.52
Wall Street Target
$11.00
(+31.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
85.7%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 14.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.22
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$8.05
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$7.88
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$8.39
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 3.4%)
$15.31
(+82%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 3.4%)
$9.29
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 3.4%)
$7.89
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.37
Bull Case
$15.23
(+81%)
Analyst growth 67.9%, PE expands to 24.5
Base Case
$13.85
(+65%)
Market implied 67.9%, PE stable at 22.3
Bear Case
$5.61
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.5 to 14.4
Stabilization Target:
$8.94
(+6.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.5%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 3:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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