AVDL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVDL - Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc Ordinary Share
$21.64
0.01 (0.05%)
▲
5d:
+0.32%
30d:
+0.65%
90d:
+15.72%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Feb 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVDL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVDL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.55
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.70
4.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVDL is currently trading at $21.64, which is considered fair based on recent price action. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.8) is in line with its historical norms (27.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVDL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AVDL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVDL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AVDL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
UNKNOWN
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($20.94)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.54
Resistance Level
$21.76
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Feb 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.82
Wall Street Target
$20.94
(-3.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.9%
Profit Margin
-0.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
28.8 vs 27.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.99
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$22.34
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$22.70
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.58
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.8, Growth: 282.5%)
$73.03
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.5, Growth: 282.5%)
$57.12
(+164%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.2, Growth: 282.5%)
$48.55
(+124%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 05, 2026 8:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVDL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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