AVDL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVDL - Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc Ordinary Share
$21.55
-0.01 (-0.05%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 02, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AVDL is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AVDL is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.13
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.68
9.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVDL is currently trading at $21.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.47 to $21.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.5) is in line with its historical norms (27.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVDL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVDL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$21.47 -
$21.56
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AVDL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($20.94)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.47 -
$21.56
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.48
Resistance Level
$21.65
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.53
Wall Street Target
$20.94
(-2.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.9%
Profit Margin
-0.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
27.5 vs 27.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.62
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$21.69
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$21.75
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.57
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.5, Growth: 182.5%)
$72.77
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 182.5%)
$58.95
(+173%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 182.5%)
$50.10
(+132%)
Last updated: January 31, 2026 7:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVDL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AVDL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AVDL price and gamma walls.
