AWR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AWR - American States Water Company
$77.48
-0.29 (-0.37%)
▼
5d:
+0.77%
30d:
+0.09%
90d:
+2.9%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AWR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AWR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$92.43
Based on 3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AWR is currently trading at $77.48, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.13 to $77.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.4) is in line with its historical norms (20.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $75.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AWR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $75.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AWR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$76.13 -
$77.84
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($76.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$76.13 -
$77.84
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.78
Resistance Level
$81.02
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.39
Wall Street Target
$76.00
(-2.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Profit Margin
19.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.4 vs 20.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.61
(0%)
2-Year Target
$77.46
(0%)
3-Year Target
$77.30
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→21)
$77.74
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 2.8%)
$90.93
(+17%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 2.8%)
$84.56
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 2.8%)
$71.88
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.43
Bull Case
$94.06
(+21%)
Analyst growth 11.2%, PE expands to 24.7
Base Case
$85.51
(+10%)
Market implied 11.2%, PE stable at 22.4
Bear Case
$52.28
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.4 to 20.5
Stabilization Target:
$78.21
(+0.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 15, 2026 11:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AWR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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