AX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AX - Axos Financial, Inc. Common Stock
$83.18
-0.26 (-0.31%)
▼
5d:
-4.37%
30d:
-12.2%
90d:
-14.49%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$146.66
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$91.06
8.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AX is currently trading at $83.18, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.42 to $96.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.6) compared to its historical average (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $82.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.17 (+32.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $82.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.17 (+32.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$86.42 -
$96.78
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.4% below Wall St target ($110.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$86.42 -
$96.78
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$82.14
Resistance Level
$90.11
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.60
Wall Street Target
$110.17
(+32.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.8%
Profit Margin
36.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 9.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$80.10
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$77.14
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$74.28
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$82.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 15.3%)
$327.22
(+293%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 15.3%)
$127.54
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 15.3%)
$108.41
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.21
Bull Case
$108.11
(+30%)
Analyst growth 17.8%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$98.28
(+18%)
Market implied 17.8%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$56.74
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$92.83
(+11.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 10:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Derrick Walsh
SELL
4846 shares
2026-02-06
James John Court
SELL
11163 shares
2026-02-06
Gregory Garrabrants
SELL
43294 shares
2026-02-04
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