AXP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXP - American Express Company
$349.11
-9.39 (-2.62%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AXP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AXP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$545.15
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$338.49
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXP is currently trading at $349.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $357.38 to $379.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.6) is in line with its historical norms (21.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $344.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AXP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $344.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AXP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$357.38 -
$379.17
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AXP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($377.22)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$357.38 -
$379.17
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$344.50
Resistance Level
$370.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.63
Wall Street Target
$377.22
(+5.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.6 vs 21.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$356.35
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$354.21
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$352.09
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→21)
$358.45
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.8%)
$556.89
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 12.8%)
$515.12
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 12.8%)
$437.85
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.88
Bull Case
$461.82
(+29%)
Analyst growth 16.8%, PE expands to 26.6
Base Case
$419.84
(+17%)
Market implied 16.8%, PE stable at 24.2
Bear Case
$244.43
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.6 to 21.0
Stabilization Target:
$364.98
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 2:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Douglas Tabish
SELL
2515 shares
2025-10-23
Denise Pickett
SELL
5000 shares
2025-10-22
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-05
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AXP price and gamma walls.
