Is MA stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MA is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: MA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of MA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MA to be between $495.31 and $513.73. The current price is $494.20.

What is the analyst price target for MA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MA is $647.81. This implies a potential upside of 31.1% from current levels.

MA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MA - Mastercard Incorporated

SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC

$494.20

4.26 (0.87%) ▲

5d: -0.26%

30d: -4.69%

90d: -4.66%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your MA Gains

Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 30, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

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Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 15.8%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$905.08

Based on 9.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$561.99

12.1% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.9x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MA is currently trading at $494.20, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $495.31 to $513.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.7) compared to its historical average (24.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $488.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: MA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $647.81 (+31.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $495.31 - $513.73

Company Quality Score 57/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 31.1% below Wall St target ($647.81)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $495.31 - $513.73

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $488.01

Resistance Level $507.29

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of May 15, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 21.72

Wall Street Target $647.81 (+31.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 15.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 21.2%

Profit Margin 45.9%

Valuation Discount vs History -4.4% cheaper

PE vs Historical 21.7 vs 24.9 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -4.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $472.46 (-4%)

2-Year Target $451.67 (-9%)

3-Year Target $431.79 (-13%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 22→25) $495.04 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.1, Growth: 15.8%) $780.47 (+58%)

Base: (SPY PE: 21.7, Growth: 15.8%) $768.05 (+55%)

Bear: (PE: 18.5, Growth: 15.8%) $652.84 (+32%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 28.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.29

Bull Case $709.26 (+44%)

Analyst growth 31.6%, PE expands to 31.2

Base Case $644.79 (+31%)

Market implied 31.6%, PE stable at 28.3

Bear Case $333.16 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.7 to 24.9

Stabilization Target: $566.59 (+14.6%)

PE Expansion Potential: +14.6%

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Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-30

Shelley Moore Capito BUY 2026-03-28

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-20

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