COF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COF - Capital One Financial
$187.17
1.38 (0.74%)
▲
5d:
-1.22%
30d:
-6.75%
90d:
-9.74%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
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1 traders called COF this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$401.44
Based on 13.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$249.26
24.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COF is currently trading at $187.17, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $186.12 to $199.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $181.30, while resistance sits at $196.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $255.19 (+36.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $181.30, while resistance sits at $196.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $255.19 (+36.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$186.12 -
$199.63
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.3% below Wall St target ($255.19)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$186.12 -
$199.63
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$181.30
Resistance Level
$196.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.75
Wall Street Target
$255.19
(+36.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
46.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.2%
Profit Margin
8.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 9.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$178.00
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$169.28
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$160.98
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$186.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 22.5%)
$979.61
(+423%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 22.5%)
$344.09
(+84%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 22.5%)
$292.48
(+56%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 9.64 | Forward EPS (Implied): $19.41
Bull Case
$226.01
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$187.17
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$143.19
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$217.30
(+16.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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1099 shares
2026-04-01
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1692 shares
2026-04-01
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2026-03-30
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