AXSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXSM - Axsome Therapeutics, Inc
$158.20
1.85 (1.18%)
▲
5d:
+0.87%
30d:
-3.47%
90d:
+4.04%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
AXSM is down 4.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $180 2026-05-15 with 451 OI. Call ratio: 91% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AXSM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -48.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AXSM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -48.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$201.86
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$125.34
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXSM is currently trading at $158.20, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $155.91 to $170.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.1) compared to its historical average (197.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 48.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXSM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $152.28, while resistance sits at $165.69.
Market Sentiment: AXSM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (19th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $223.66 (+43.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXSM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $152.28, while resistance sits at $165.69.
Market Sentiment: AXSM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (19th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $223.66 (+43.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$155.91 -
$170.81
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
19th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 19th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.0% below Wall St target ($223.66)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$155.91 -
$170.81
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$13.13
(8.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$152.28
Resistance Level
$165.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.13
Wall Street Target
$223.66
(+43.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
65.0%
Profit Margin
-28.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-48.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.1 vs 197.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-48.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$140.72
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$126.64
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$113.98
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→197)
$828.83
(+430%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.1 to 197.3
Stabilization Target:
$1136.94
(+627.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+627.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 9:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
18
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark L Jacobson
SELL
35378 shares
2026-02-26
Mark Coleman
SELL
25000 shares
2026-02-26
Herriot Tabuteau
SELL
32410 shares
2026-02-02
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Advanced AXSM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AXSM price and gamma walls.
