RARE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RARE - Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
$25.00
-0.80 (-3.10%)
▼
5d:
-4.29%
30d:
+1.96%
90d:
+21.83%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
RARE is down 4.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $30 2026-06-18 with 29 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RARE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RARE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RARE is currently trading at $25.00, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.71 to $25.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 174.8) compared to its historical average (255.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $24.23, while resistance sits at $27.42. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.75 (+111.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $24.23, while resistance sits at $27.42. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.75 (+111.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$23.71 -
$25.75
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 111.0% below Wall St target ($52.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.71 -
$25.75
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.23
Resistance Level
$27.42
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
174.83
Wall Street Target
$52.75
(+111.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.2%
Profit Margin
-90.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
174.8 vs 255.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.50
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$20.25
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$18.23
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 175→255)
$26.61
(+7%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 174.8 to 255.3
Stabilization Target:
$36.51
(+46.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+46.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RARE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Howard Horn
SELL
4683 shares
2026-04-01
Howard Horn
SELL
1635 shares
2026-03-03
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
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Advanced RARE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RARE price and gamma walls.
