RARE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RARE - Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
$33.47
1.09 (3.37%)
▲
5d:
+14.43%
30d:
+53.67%
90d:
+56.26%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: RARE is 14.4% above its trading range ($29.25). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: RARE is 14.4% above its trading range ($29.25). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.81
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RARE is currently trading at $33.47, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.26 to $29.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 34.7) compared to its historical average (148.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 38.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.31, while resistance sits at $35.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: RARE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.05 (+55.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.31, while resistance sits at $35.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: RARE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.05 (+55.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$22.26 -
$29.25
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
RARE is technically overbought (RSI 76). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+14.4% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 55.5% below Wall St target ($52.05)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.26 -
$29.25
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.31
Resistance Level
$35.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.67
Wall Street Target
$52.05
(+55.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.2%
Profit Margin
-90.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-38.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
34.7 vs 148.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-38.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.12
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$27.11
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$24.40
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→149)
$104.50
(+212%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 34.7 to 148.5
Stabilization Target:
$143.35
(+328.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+328.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 7:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RARE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Howard Horn
SELL
4683 shares
2026-04-01
Howard Horn
SELL
1635 shares
2026-03-03
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
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Advanced RARE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RARE price and gamma walls.
