BABA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BABA - Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares, each represents eight Ordinary Shares
$169.56
-4.69 (-2.69%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
18d
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4 traders called BABA this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BABA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BABA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$325.80
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$202.30
16.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BABA is currently trading at $169.56, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $150.64 to $171.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 2.8) is in line with its historical norms (2.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BABA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $161.68, while resistance sits at $181.10.
Market Sentiment: BABA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $196.90 (+13.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BABA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $161.68, while resistance sits at $181.10.
Market Sentiment: BABA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $196.90 (+13.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$150.64 -
$171.32
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($196.90)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.0% growth with 4.8% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$150.64 -
$171.32
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$161.68
Resistance Level
$181.10
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.81
Wall Street Target
$196.90
(+13.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.8%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
2.8 vs 2.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$177.74
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$181.29
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$184.92
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→3)
PE COMPRESSION
$177.55
(+2%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 40.7%)
$3844.97
(+2107%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.8, Growth: 40.7%)
$484.86
(+178%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.4, Growth: 40.7%)
$412.13
(+137%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.52
Bull Case
$386.45
(+128%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 25.7
Base Case
$351.32
(+107%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 23.4
Bear Case
$119.45
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BABA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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