AMZN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMZN - Amazon.Com Inc
$242.67
0.97 (0.40%)
▲
5d:
+6.9%
30d:
-5.4%
90d:
+15.24%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
26d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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1 traders called AMZN this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMZN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMZN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$378.97
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$235.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMZN is currently trading at $242.67, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $234.02 to $258.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.6) is in line with its historical norms (26.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 74.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMZN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $225.55, while resistance sits at $252.53.
Market Sentiment: AMZN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $312.99 (+29.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMZN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $225.55, while resistance sits at $252.53.
Market Sentiment: AMZN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $312.99 (+29.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$234.02 -
$258.90
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.0% below Wall St target ($312.99)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$234.02 -
$258.90
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$225.55
Resistance Level
$252.53
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.57
Wall Street Target
$312.99
(+29.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
74.8%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.6 vs 26.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$238.06
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$233.54
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$229.10
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→26)
$242.47
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.6, Growth: 14.0%)
$359.43
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.0%)
$318.66
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 14.0%)
$270.86
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.64
Bull Case
$343.76
(+42%)
Analyst growth 29.3%, PE expands to 34.8
Base Case
$312.50
(+29%)
Market implied 29.3%, PE stable at 31.6
Bear Case
$164.36
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.6 to 26.0
Stabilization Target:
$256.83
(+5.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMZN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew R Jassy
SELL
31000 shares
2026-04-17
Douglas J Herrington
SELL
20500 shares
2026-04-14
Douglas J Herrington
SELL
1000 shares
2026-04-01
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