BBVA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BBVA - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.
$21.66
1.33 (6.54%)
▲
5d:
+1.45%
30d:
-2.61%
90d:
-6.36%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BBVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BBVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.86
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.16
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BBVA is currently trading at $21.66, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.62 to $22.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.8) compared to its historical average (11.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BBVA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BBVA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$20.62 -
$22.79
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($23.22)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$20.62 -
$22.79
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.25
Resistance Level
$21.81
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.79
Wall Street Target
$23.22
(+7.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.4%
Profit Margin
33.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 11.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.66
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$19.71
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$18.81
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$21.71
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.6%)
$56.61
(+161%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 4.6%)
$24.80
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 4.6%)
$21.08
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.02
Bull Case
$22.95
(+7%)
Analyst growth 1.6%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$20.87
(-3%)
Market implied 1.6%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$13.97
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 11.3
Stabilization Target:
$25.00
(+15.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 6:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BBVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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BBVA is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.
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