BCRX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BCRX - BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc
$9.33
-0.23 (-2.41%)
▼
5d:
-3.81%
30d:
+18.1%
90d:
+21.09%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
BCRX is down 3.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $10 2026-04-17 with 3,870 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BCRX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -16.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BCRX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -16.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.92
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.20
51.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BCRX is currently trading at $9.33, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.76 to $9.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (19.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BCRX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.20, while resistance sits at $10.32.
Market Sentiment: BCRX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.30 (+128.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BCRX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.20, while resistance sits at $10.32.
Market Sentiment: BCRX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.30 (+128.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$7.76 -
$9.40
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 128.3% below Wall St target ($21.30)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$7.76 -
$9.40
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.20
Resistance Level
$10.32
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.63
Wall Street Target
$21.30
(+128.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
209.1%
Profit Margin
30.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 19.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.40
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$7.56
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$6.80
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→20)
$11.58
(+24%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 67.8%)
$60.63
(+550%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 67.8%)
$31.49
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 67.8%)
$26.77
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.21
Bull Case
$7.07
(-28%)
Analyst growth -33.7%, PE expands to 8.8
Base Case
$6.43
(-34%)
Market implied -33.7%, PE stable at 8.0
Bear Case
$6.60
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 19.8
Stabilization Target:
$15.88
(+70.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+70.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 7:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BCRX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alane P Barnes
SELL
150000 shares
2026-03-16
Alane P Barnes
SELL
21773 shares
2025-12-22
Alane P Barnes
SELL
19770 shares
2025-12-03
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Advanced BCRX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BCRX price and gamma walls.
