BFH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BFH - Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.
$72.54
-0.49 (-0.67%)
ā¼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š” BUY OPPORTUNITY: BFH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
š” BUY OPPORTUNITY: BFH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$65.48
Based on -1.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.66
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFH is currently trading at $72.54, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.94 to $77.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.7) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$69.94 -
$77.85
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($80.07)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$69.94 -
$77.85
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.07
Resistance Level
$74.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.67
Wall Street Target
$80.07
(+9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9703.9%
Profit Margin
18.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.47
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$73.91
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$74.35
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8ā8)
PE COMPRESSION
$72.75
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -7.3%)
$169.32
(+132%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: -7.3%)
$58.20
(-20%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: -7.3%)
$49.47
(-32%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.88
Bull Case
$72.34
(0%)
Analyst growth -3.6%, PE expands to 7.6
Base Case
$65.77
(-9%)
Market implied -3.6%, PE stable at 6.9
Bear Case
$46.38
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BFH price and gamma walls.
